Gold Gloves produced fewer than normal head-scratchers; not as many given to superior offensive players/average defenders this year. In fact, I was surprised by Bourn winning. Jeter shouldn't have won any of his four, especially this year. The voters have been giving them out for years without paying attention; nothing beats the 1999 Palmeiro award though - 28 games at 1B & 135 at DH. Not just a recent problem, Joe Torre's only gold glove was at catcher in 1965...when he played 100 games at catcher & 49 at 1B, threw out a painfully average 33% of the runners (I love baseball-reference.com).
Surprised the fan-based strapped Rays picked up the $10 million option on Crawford, they must have a deal for Burrill cookin'.
Feliz not being picked up by the Phillies is surprising too; I'm not sure they can upgrade much on offense without downgrading significantly defensively.
Varitek must still be kicking himself for not taking arbitration last year. Would have been a little over $8 million for '09 alone instead of combined for '09 & '10. I guess, Boros doesn't always give good advice.
A good article from Bill Conlan from the Philadelphia Daily News, I couldn't agree more.
http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/20091111_Bill_Conlin__It_s_time_for_DH_in_the_NL.html
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A Walt Jocketty comment to Fanhouse about possibly trading Phillips, Harang or Arroyo: "We're going to probably have less to spend this year than we have in the past," GM Walt Jocketty told FanHouse on Tuesday at the GM meetings. "It just depends on how (ticket) sales go this offseason." I've been trying to tell people for years that salaries don't drive ticket prices, it's the other way around...those who can sell tickets, can pay salaries.
In 2009 by average attendance per game: Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals, Angels, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, Brewers, Giants & the same 10 teams were top 10 by percentage of capacity (in a different order).
Top 10 in payrolls for 2009: Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Tigers, Phillies, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Astros & Mariners (Cardinals at #13 & Brewers at #17).
The top eight look the same to me; the bottom 10 anyone?
Bottom 10 in by average per game (#30 to #21): A's, Marlins, Pirates, Reds, Indians, Royals, Nationals, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles. Again, by percentage of capacity the same, except the Diamondbacks make the percentage list, the Mariners are #18.
Bottom 10 in Payrolls: Marlins, Padres, Pirates, Nationals, A's, Rays, Twins, Reds, Diamondbacks, Rockies. Not as many of the same teams, but there are 6 of 10 the same; the Royals were #20, Orioles #18 & Blue Jays at #16...the Mariners are completely upside-down here (or is that downside-up?).
So, don't complain that million dollar players make it tough for your family to go to games; most of the time it's inadequate front-offices to blame (scouting, developing, etc.)
Attendance info: http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance
Salary info: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4ew-fwu2XT3cpPRtt9qIGw
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The Yankees over the Phillies.
The Phillies can beat the Yankees, but I'm not sure they will. The wildcards are AJ Burnett & Pedro Martinez. I think if the Philles win they'll need sub-par starting pitching from the Yankees.
On any given day in any given season there's a 33.33% chance Burnett goes out to the mound and dominates, a 33.33% chance he struggles and gives up 5 or 6 runs in 5 or 6 innings (or less) & a 33.33% chance he has an regular 'ol quality start. Which guy shows up? For either start he makes? If the Yankees get one dominating start they probably will win the series. If they get two quality starts they'll probably win the series. If Burnett gets shelled once, it may not bode well for the Yankees.
The issue with Pedro is that he's pitching Game 2, which means he pitches Game 6. Which means he has to make a start, on the road, on regular rest, after pitching on the road. He hasn't pitch on regular rest for quite a while. If he only had to pitch once (Game 4) he could "let it flly" and not worry about coming back to pitch again...possibly ever. Throw in the potential of cold weather, I'm not sure this is going to work well. Having said that, Pedro was the best pitcher of a generation and could pitch while throwing in the high 90s. He obviously knows what he's doing.
The Phillies offense is really the only one that could rival the Yankees; it still isn't as good, but it's closer than any other playoff team this year. The Yankees have the better bullpen as well. If all pitchers are able to pitch at their highest level the Yankees win there too. It will be interesting to see Sabathia pitch on short rest twice this late in the season; he has had an extended rest & didn't pitch as many innings during the regular season either.
The Yankkes over the Phillies. After a decade of throwing money at everyone available they may have finally figured it out.
]]>ALCS - Yankees over Angels. Unless Sabathia has a bad start or Burnett has two bad starts I don't see the Angels having much of a chance. With games one & two in New York stadium the Angles starters won't be able to limit the Yankees to one run over the two games as they did the Red Sox.
NLCS - Phillies over Dodgers. I'd like to see Torre vs. the Yankees, but the Phillies starters are better than the Dodgers bullpen; the Philles also have the better lineup, especially in Philadelphia.
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Phillies over Rockies, Cardinals over Dodgers, Yankees over Twins, Red Sox over Angels
The only series that should be close is the Angels & Red Sox, and the Red Sox always beats the Angels in the playoffs.
I'll post again to predict the Championship Series then the World Series but I'd say Cardinals over the Phillies & Red Sox over the Yankees. The Cardinals & Red Sox have better overall pitching staffs than the Philles & Yankees.
Red Sox over Cardinals in the World Series; the Red Sox have a better bullpen & better offense.
We'll see.
]]>Big stats matter for MVP, but the "Most Valuable" part means more; the Cy Young is a strict stat award, and it doesn't matter this year, but W-L record is WAY over-rated since 1990 or so.
AL MVP - Arod. Not Jeter, not Teixeira, the Yankee that came back and caused the accent. Mauer second, then Kendry Morales, Youkilis & Jeter can go 4th & 5th in whichever order you like.
AL CY YOUNG - Greinke. The difference between his & Verlander's ERA outweigh Verlander's lead in strikeouts; and Greinke's K:BB ratio is better than Verlander's as well (4.75:1 to 3.89:1).
AL ROY - Porcello over Beckham.
NL MVP - Pujols (duh). Howard second & Sandoval third (I guess).
NL CY YOUNG - Lincecum. He could be the pitcher equivalent to Pujols, it will take more years for that to be true but he's on his way. Carpenter second, Vazquez third, then Wainwright.
NL ROY - Happ. With no dominant offensive rookie Happ sneaks in with slightly better than middle-of-the-road stats. Coghlan & McGehee are good, but Happ did a better job pitching than either of them did hitting.
Be back with playoff predictions after the Twins/Tigers game (or is that Tigers/Twins).
]]>Sound familiar? Same order as last year. The Phillies aren't clearly the best team but they have the fewest questions to answer. If they get basic, run-of-the-mill production out of the back end of their rotation they should win the division pretty easy.
The Mets could take 1st place, if Pelfry, Perez & Maine live up to potential. The offense is solid and bullpen solved (on paper) so they'll stay close.
The Marlins will be an 85 win team, but the offense won't be able support the solid pitching.
The Braves & Nationals are going to have to rely on too many young players to compete. The Nationals could improve by 12 games this year and still lose 90 games. If they could combine the rosters they might be able to finish ahead of the Marlins.
NL Central - Cubs, Reds, Brewers, Reds, Cardinals & Pirates
The Cubs are clearly the favorite.
I think the Reds surprise, they'll need Cueto to get better & Harang to have a flashback to a few years ago. Their young players are much better than the Braves & Nationals and should help the offense, especially at home.
The Brewers lost too much pitching to do much better than .500; the last three could finish in any order, the Pirates probably aren't ready to make the leap out of last yet but they're getting closer.
NL West - Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Rockies & Padres
Like the Cubs, the Dodgers are the clear favorite, even with the questionable pitching.
If Garland can keep his ERA in the 4.50 range the D-backs could be close for a while, they need to find some offense somewhere. They could lead the league in strikeouts...both as a pitching staff and in offense.
The Giants have no offense to go with the pitching. Maybe Johnson can help Zito like Ryan helped Johnson years ago. I know, I know, not gonna happen. Maybe next off-season the Giants will address the offense a little bit.
The Rockies are lucky the Padres are in this division; it won't keep them from losing 90 games, but it will keep them out of last.
Has there ever been a worse Major League team than this version of the Padres? If Peavy sticks around all year they might not lose 110 games.
]]>I'll start with the expected division winners, I won't be doing the MVP, etc stuff; there is no way to predict that, purely lucky guess stuff. At least with predicting team success one can use thought & reason. American League today, National League tomorrow.
AL East - Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Orioles & Jays
Kind of a toss up here, there are probably three 90 win teams here. The Sox have quality veterans all over the place and above average top three in the rotation; they have "age issues" with Lowell & Varitek, Ortiz has to comeback as well. I'm least worried about he question marks with the Red Sox, so they get the nod.
The Rays could easily win this, Burrell is better than any DH they had last year, Crawford & Kazmir will probably be better, you have to assume Longoria all year will make a difference; Upton could take a step back though.
The Yankees third because I don't think Burnett will stay healthy; he's started 30 games three times in his career including 2008, will this year be different than the four start & 21 start years he had following the previous two? Throw in Pettitte's &Posada's age and the fact that Matsui can only DH until June, it doesn't bode well for the Yankees. Teixeira will replace some lost offense, Cano has to rebound and they need offense out of CF. Oh yeah, that A-rod guy is out until May, maybe June (I've got him on two fantasy teams, I'm hoping six weeks, not nine).
Orioles will be good in 2010, and better than that in 2011.
The Jays are in a sad state right now & will probably get worse before getting better.
AL Central - Twins, Indians, White Sox, Royals & Tigers
Going against the Twins proves dangerous. They have solid young starters with Liriano coming back. Mauer being out for an extended period will hurt, but they have solid pitching and play solid defense which is enough in this divisioin.
The Indians obviously will be better with Martinez & Hafner back in the lineup, the back of their rotation worries me, and there's no way Lee repeats his 2008.
The White Sox are a bunch of slow footed power hitters, it's tough to win consistantly with station-to-station baseball. Even if Danks & Floyd progress after that is nothing. I love Alexei Ramirez, but other than that everybody in the lineup is the same type of hitter...all or nothing.
The Royals might get the third place if they get enough starting pitching; their lineup is better, but Alex Gordon needs to finish learning how to hit with a wooden bat if this team is going anywhere.
The Tigers have NO pitching; there could be some nice players available here at the trading deadline.
AL West - Angels, Mariners, A's & Rangers
Angels are a no-brainer, even with Lackey & Santana out for the first month and Escobar back after that. They're the only team in the division that's well rounded enough to play consistantly.
The Mariners could surprise. Hopefully for them Hernandez won't be burned out from the WBC; Bedard healthy in that big ballpark could be a success. A .500 record could happen for them.
The A's still don't have enough healthy players. Holliday won't be the same type of premium hitter in Oakland, his home/road splits say he'll still be very good but he won't be the same guy. They have to wait until Gallagher & Gonzales are ready before they can compete for the division; they'll probably pick up a good young players for Holliday at the trading deadline.
The Rangers will be bad this year while their young starters learn, but they could do a Rays type jump in 2010.
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