World Series

Alright, here we go...

The Yankees over the Phillies.

The Phillies can beat the Yankees, but I'm not sure they will.  The wildcards are AJ Burnett & Pedro Martinez.  I think if the Philles win they'll need sub-par starting pitching from the Yankees.

On any given day in any given season there's a 33.33% chance Burnett goes out to the mound and dominates, a 33.33% chance he struggles and gives up 5 or 6 runs in 5 or 6 innings (or less) & a 33.33% chance he has an regular 'ol quality start.  Which guy shows up? For either start he makes? If the Yankees get one dominating start they probably will win the series.  If they get two quality starts they'll probably win the series.  If Burnett gets shelled once, it may not bode well for the Yankees.

The issue with Pedro is that he's pitching Game 2, which means he pitches Game 6.  Which means he has to make a start, on the road, on regular rest, after pitching on the road.  He hasn't pitch on regular rest for quite a while.  If he only had to pitch once (Game 4) he could "let it flly" and not worry about coming back to pitch again...possibly ever.  Throw in the potential of cold weather, I'm not sure this is going to work well.  Having said that, Pedro was the best pitcher of a generation and could pitch while throwing in the high 90s.  He obviously knows what he's doing.

The Phillies offense is really the only one that could rival the Yankees; it still isn't as good, but it's closer than any other playoff team this year.  The Yankees have the better bullpen as well.  If all pitchers are able to pitch at their highest level the Yankees win there too.  It will be interesting to see Sabathia pitch on short rest twice this late in the season; he has had an extended rest & didn't pitch as many innings during the regular season either. 

The Yankkes over the Phillies. After a decade of throwing money at everyone available they may have finally figured it out.