February 2008

Someone explain these seasons...

...then get back to me on PEDs.  All of these players would be accused of PED abuse if these seasons happened in 2008.

Mickey Mantle's 1956 season compared to the others from '53 to '60, then the one year blip in '61.

Davey Johnson's 1973, Burt Campenaris' 1970, Carlton Fisk's 1985.

Was Tony Gwynn using when he hit 17 HR at age 37 & 16 at 38 when he hadn't hit double digit HRs since age 26...musta been, right?

At age 40 George Brett hit 19 HRs, in the same number of ABs each of the previous two season he totaled 17. After the 19HR season he retires? Obviously hiding something, he used something, right?

Player A has HR totals in the teens early in his career, then 44 HRs at age 27, 40 when he's 29 & 30, then stuck in the teens and early 20s for HR totals throughout his 30s with a one year blip of 28 HRs when he's 37.  An obvious steroid user, must've used them to get a big contract then stopped when he was paid.  You can easily tell just by looking at his stats.  Either that of it's Carl Yastrzemski's career.

Dozens if not hundreds of tests have been done on HGH use & athletes in their prime, none have shown even a little bit of evidece of improvement.  It doesn't help sprinters, power lifters, gymnasts; it certainly doesn't help baseball players.  There has also been no proof of it helping recover from injuries, none.  Other than older people, in their 60s and older (Stallone), there are no benefits to HGH.  There is also no information on the long term affects of its use, hence the ban.

Baseball is a game of physics, hand-eye coordination and decision making.  Big biceps don't matter; if Dave Kingman played his career in the 90s instead of the 70s he would've had Jose Canseco stats (less the SB).  Smaller ballparks, weaker pitching, better bats all lead to better offense a whole lot more than any steroid or hormone ever could/would or will.

Take all the steroids you want, if you don't have a smooth swing, can't put the bat head on the ball, can't lay off the slider away, you're not going to be any good.  Desperate players have tried to gain an advantage to get to a higher level of play, they've all failed, everyone of them, majors & minors, no improvement in performance, none. One year blips have happened forever, superstar & scrub, they continue to happen now, and will 20 years from now.

If I were Commissioner

With it being just the beginning of Spring Training there isn't much to comment on, and I don't "report", so I'm stealing a topic of discussion from a lunchbreak this week for a blog topic.

If I were Commissioner:

- The DH would be in both leagues, but limited to 100 games per year.  That would keep the full-time DHs out of the game (nothing against Harold Baines).  There would also be no 'DH put into the field, pitcher hits' rule, pitchers should never hit (nothing against Micah Owings).

- Each team would play a home & away single admission double header on Saturday(s).  I would strongly suggest teams not increase the ticket prices for those days more than 20%, although this is a free country and ticket prices are supply & demand driven.

- I'm not sure this falls under the "Commissoiner" tag, but I'd eliminate the Wins stat for a pitcher.  It simply doesn't matter anymore.  Back when pitchers threw entire games regardless of the score they could be responsible for a win or loss, but now with pitch counts and one inning bullpen guys wins are truly a team effort.  A teams record when a particular pitcher starts would be a better gauge.

Seems like there was more, so there may be a second part to this blog in a few days.

Yes, I know I left out the whole PED thing; get back to me when either more that a handful of a couple hundred are significant players or when there is a PED that improves either/both decision making (which pitches to swing at) and/or the ability to put a four inch section of a stick on a ball traveling at you 90 mph. Throw in the ability to spot a pitch where you want it as well. Find the list of minor leaguers that have been caught and let me know how many were actual prospects before or after the use (I'll save you some time, none).

Let's see, they don't help players perform on a baseball field; people are HR crazy about them...if they make a 375ft out go 400ft for a HR the they also make a 300ft (pick your distance) flyball go 330ft that makes it easier to catch or position under to keep someone from tagging up and advancing; the same would apply to the pace groundballs, 10% (pick your pct) faster gets some throught the infield for singles it would also quicken the pace of the slow roller making it a double play ball. 

A rule is a rule, and if broken one must pay the consequences. But let's be fair/reasonable/objective about things. 

Bedard Trade

The Mariners didn't give up a lot in known commodities (other than Jones) but they did give up some quality prospects, more talent prospects then stat driven ones. Jones will be added to Markasis to form a fairly decent, and potentially dynamic, pair of outfielders; Sherrill seems like an odd fit, but he'll probably be traded by July 31st to a contender.

Tillman & Butler are both pitchers who could be in the rotation mid 2010.  You have to look past the W-L records (which don't matter with any pitcher) and ERA to find some potential.  Tillman had a 4.2 K/BB ratio, granted at High-A ball, but its still impressive. Add 9.2 K/9 IP and you see why the Orioles wanted him. Butler went 4.85 K/BB and 7.7 K/9 IP, not too bad for a lanky lefty with a herky-jerky delivery...usually that leads to wildness.  Obviously they both need to perform above Single-A, but it doesn't seem that will be a problem.

Mickolio could be in Baltimore by August; he had a 3.75 K/BB ratio and 10.5 K/9 IP.  He's a big (6'9") hard thrower that has better than average control, and also has a decent changeup.  He's a September call-up, if not an All-Star break call-up.  He probably won't be the next great closer, but every team needs their version of Scott Proctor.

The Orioles also added some size for their rec league basketball team: Mickolio 6'9", Butler 6'7", Tillman 6'5" and Jones has some hops (but only 6'2").

So far MacPhail has given up two and gotten ten, with Roberts left.  And depending on the seasons they have Baez, Bradford, Walker & Sherrill could all go between the All-Star break & the non-waiver trading deadline (hence Mickolio's call-up).

Santana Trade

I'm not sure why the Twins decided to take quantity over quality, but they did.  It isn't like they got nothing, but seems like Pelfry & Gomez would've been a better deal.  I'm still stunned they Yankees didn't include Kennedy in their deal, Baseball America projects him as a #3 (like Mulvey) and they usually don't miss low.  if they're willing to give up Hughes & Cabrera, and have Chamberlain ready and Andrews Blackman coming why not deal Kennedy? I'm not sure the Sox ever really wanted to make the deal, with Buchholz ready giving up Lester and Ellsbury wouldn't have hurt them.   

It's the pitching that makes this a head scratcher. None of the three they received, with the possible exception of Guerra three years from now, are as good as Slowey, Blackburn or Tyler Robertson.  If Guerra becomes an ace it's a different discussion (like Sizemore in the Colon deal from '02) but that is a bit down the road. 

Hard to believe how people are ripping Gomez. A year ago he was projected as high as Fernando Martinez, although a different type of player, now he's some consolation prize. Gomez goes .286/.363/.414 at AAA, Martinez goes .271/.336/.377 at AA and now Martinez is all world and Gomez isn't.  Gomez is as good a prospect as Ellsbury and already better defensively as Cabrera.  Gomez won't have more than 15 HR pop, but he'll be an all-star caliber player for a lot of years.