Every All-Star Game is a joke, the NFL being the worst (NHL, then NBA), but MLB is right there with the other major sports.  The whole home field in post-season should end, actually should've never started.  For 100 years rotating between the AL & NL worked, start that again please.  An "all-star" from last place teams shouldn't determine who gets Game 7 in the World Series; it will happen someday if this arrangement continues.

The hype around this years game with the living Hall of Famers parading to the ballpark was followed up by a game which eneded with both teams out of pitchers (again) and future Hall of Famers across the NL outfield (Ludwick, McLouth & Hart...combined 0-9, 3K, 5 LOB).  Guzman (0-4, 3 LOB) was at 3B in an all-star game even though he's never played any position except SS since turning pro.  Navarro (actually got a hit...and struck out twice) was at catcher for the AL and there was a true all-star performance by Cook (3IP, 4H, 3BB, 1K).  When was the last time Sherrill pitched 2.1 innings (yes, I know only 25 pitches) in the majors? 7/20/04, nice! He did pitch 2.0 innings three other times in his career, once each in '04, '05 & '07. 

Yea...a real classic.

Move the event to a weekend. Play the futures game on Friday night.  On Saturday & Sunday from 10am to 4pm have a fan-fest type setup with tables or boothes wrapped around the warning track that (more) fans can get into with an admissioin fee.  Saturday night have the homerun derby (ticket required).  Let fans tour (wander through) the ballpark hosting, including clubhouses & press box.  Let them throw some pitches from a bullpen mound. 

The All-Star game used to be a place where fans got to see "all the stars" play at once, things have evolved.  Because of television and/or the internet the vast majority of fans can see whomever they want whenever they want, even if it's in highlight form.  If the past few years is what the All-Star game is going to be, just change the whole set up of the All-Star event. 

Finally made it to the fun part of the season, after the All-Star Game (which I don't watch) when the trades are made and we find out which teams are for real.

Kudos to Billy Beane on getting a legit top of the rotation pitcher for Harden.  The chances Harden stays healthy for multiple years is unlikely.  Possibly if the Cubs make it to the World Series with Harden's help and then he breaks down it will be worth giving up Gallagher, but I suspect it will turn out to be a disaster for the Cubs three years from now.

The Sabathia trade made too much sense,  LaPorta didn't (doesn't) have a position with the Brewers.  The Indians didn't get a lot else in the deal; LaPorta will probably be ready for Major League pitching by the All-Star break in '09, the draft picks the Indians would've gotten if/when Sabathia signs somewhere else (Mets/Yankees) wouldn't be ready that soon.

Read a blurb on Yahoo Sports 'Rumors' section that Maddux and Wolf may be dealt from San Diego. Huh? I didn't bother to click the link to the whole story but a quick check of their stats shows that nobody will be calling.  Maddux home ERA: 2.51, road ERA: 5.71, Wolf's splits are 2.54 & 6.66.  If I know this information, other Major League teams know it as well.

Let's review the preseason predictions:

AL East: I was off on the Rays, for now.  I'm not sure how the back of the rotation will hold up, Garza has never pitched 200 innings before.  They'll probably hang tough for awhile, but I see the Tony Pena led Royals from a few years ago...although the Rays won't be one and done, they're going to improve for a few more years (finally).

AL Central: Missed on the Indians & White Sox, hit on the Tigers pitching and the Twins surpirsing.  The Twins may go the way of the Rays with inexperienced pitching just not being ready for the full season grind. 

AL West: Way off on the whole division. 

NL East: Still think the Mets will win, hit on the Braves not being any good.  Still can't figure out how the Marlins are doing it this year.

NL Central: Pretty much a hit except the Cardinals...somewhere on here I think I said they'd lose 90...a little bit off on that one.

NL West: Still think the Dodgers will win the West, and the D-backs the wildcard.  The  D-backs have better depth to go get what they need to stay competitive, the Phillies have to rely on Myers returning to form (which he might just do).

Smoltz has been injured/operated on since my last post.  It would be too bad if he doesn't just retire, but I'd probably keep trying to play until I couldn't as well.  A lot of people were mentioning Smoltz in the same breath as Eckersley...they shouldn't, Smolts is far superior.  Eckersley career as a starting pitcher was average at best, obviously the alcoholism affected things. Smoltz was outstanding, period.

My PEDs don't actually help performance on the field arguement got a boost from Mike Schmidt.  I've been saying forever that smaller ballparks, bat technology, weaker pitching from two rounds of expansion too close together (greedy owners) are far more important to the late 90s power surge.  Here's the link to Nick Cafardo's article in the Boston Globe today, about half way down through are the Mike Schmidt comments. I'm thinking it's not the answer Cafardo thought he was going to get.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/articles/2008/06/15/players_should_talk_the_talk?mode=PF

Copy & Paste of the question & answer:

Ever get mad that the steroid era maybe enhanced so many stats?

MS: "No. It would be nice if 548 [career home runs] was a stronger number than it's become. It's lesser of a feat. Everyone knows - including the players who play the game right now, you can ask them - they know that a home run is a lot easier to come by these days. They didn't take the game into the direction of technology, balls, bats, small stadiums, strike zones, less pitching inside, umpires that police the game now, not the players, and the game is a lot more friendly now. There are a lot of reasons other than steroid and performance enhancers that have created this offensive monster that we have in baseball now. I might put performance-enhancing drugs way down the list."

I'm kinda sick of umpires ripping masks off and continuing confrontations, or in today's Astros/Yankees game starting one.  So what if the home plate umpire didn't like Oswalt's reaction? Stay behind the plate and keep quiet.  BJ Upton was walking back to the dugout, complaining, when an umpire took off his mask and started to follow him.  Upton turns around (which I assume he wouldn't have done if he wasn't followed), kept talking and got thrown out.  Upton could've kept walking, but the umpire raised the level of the arguement by following him.  Anytime that happens they should be suspended, like the ump in the Milton Bradley situation was. 

Hard to believe the Royals took a high school first baseman instead of Buster Posey.  He'll be ready by the All-Star break next year, the Royals (and Rays) could've used him.

Hopefully the Rays/Red Sox "fighting" is over.  There's nothing more pathetic than a baseball fight. There were real punches thrown in this battle, but none actually landed.  Karl Ravich had the best analysis on Baseball Tonight earlier this year (and probably other times): Baseball fights are like a Jr. High dance - lotsa moving around and noooo touching.

...a good time for my second post of the season.

Put me down for Buster Posey for the first overall pick.  The Rays can find another high school SS in later drafts, even if they are seemingly going to start picking lower in the first round.  There aren't many "can't miss" catching prospects, Posey is one and fills an organizational need. 

I can't imagine Josh Hamilton keeping this going all season, especially in the heat in Texas.  Since he came back in '06 he's only had 388 ABs before this season, that'll be hit in early August or so.  He was supposed to be this good, so maybe he's the real deal.

What are the Dodgers thinking bringing Kershaw up from AA? He was a walk machine after his mid-season callup to AA last year (29K/17BB in 25IP; 134/50 in 97IP at Low A). So after an unsuccessfull two level jump last year they try it again this year sooner in the season.

I haven't seen every pitch Volquez has made this year but of the ones I've seen there aren't many above the waste.  Good thing they fired Krivsky, he's an idiot, huh?

More HRs not from PEDs but from improved bats has been said on this blog a lot, now they want to ban the maple bats...interesting.  Tests show that Ash & Maple perform the same? That's B.S., the maple are better which is why they're used so much now.

The Cardinals are playing like they don't even care that I predicted 90 losses for them.

If Mets fans were told in mid March that without Pedro they'd be 3.5 games out of first place, with Pedro coming back and no other significant injuries I have to assume they would've been happy and not calling for Randolph's head.

Because much of what happens in April is forgotten there's really no reason to get all hot and bothered about what's going on right now.  So just a few observations.

- Teams (or fans of teams) using the injury excuse for their early season failures should look at the Cubs & Red Sox.

- Oakland, Tampa Bay, Florida & St. Louis will all be closer to the bottom of their divisions than the top by the time the season ends.

- I Still think Minnesota can compete for the divisioin lead all season; Delmon Young's second half last year was solid and Cuddyer should help now that he's back.  They're stacked with young pitching (as I've mentioned before).

- I also think the Dodgers still win the West even with the D-backs hot start; they have a bunch of young offense that will dominate the NL for years...starting in the second half of '08.

- Greg Smith, Dana Eveland & Edison Volquez will all run out of steam when they get around the 170IP mark. 

- I'm not sure about the whole six-man rotation thing but the Giants need to find some offense to go with that pitching next year.  They'll all be be ready for 200+ IP next year which could be scary good if they can score four runs a game.

- Hamilton, Brown, Nady, Jacskson & McLouth won't be anywhere near the RBI leaders at the end of the season; McLouth is the real deal, but not necessarily an RBI guy.

- Before games on Friday D-backs Reynolds & Young have struck out a combined 72 times in their combined 208 ABs.  Wow. Or should that be WOW!

- Fukudome is a waste in the 5th spot; I understand the reasoning, but bat him 1st or 2nd please.

- Shouldn't the Jays have kept Reed, not because of his start but just plain common sense. He'd have been a better "solid veteran" to keep Shannon Stewart.  I know Lind has to be given a chance and Travis Snider is coming soon, but c'mon. A one position guy over a all-three guy doesn't make sense, can't just be that Stewart bats lefty.

- Mark Teixeira actually had a good April by his standards.

OK it was more than a few observations, but I couldn't stop...until now.

So ESPN trotted out the steroid thing again.  This time the comment was Naulty was 10mph on his fastball in a year.  The comment wasn't said by Naulty himself but it is at least the third version (I think the fourth) of this story.  The Mitchell Report has one version, the article written by Naulty himself another, the first OTL segment a third and not the 10mph in a year.

The gave the illusion they were going to have "tangible proof" that steroids actually help players on the field, which of course they don't.  They faild to prove anything.  I'm not going to prove my point again, scroll down a post or two and/or read the recent messages. 

Steroids will help brute strength athletes (like the track stars the piece mentioined) or football players but there is no benefit to baseball players.  Baseball talent is akin to playing a string instument like the violin, you need gifted ability to achieve elite success, it is not an acquired skill.  Many a teenager can play the violin, they can practice all they want throughout their 20s and still not be orchestra caliber...they don't have the skill required. Baseball skill is the same; practice all you want but if you don't have the ability to spot pitches or put the head of the bat on the ball properly you won't achieve elite success. 

I suppose the season has technically started so I should get my predictions on record; I don't try to guess which players will win awards, I doubt anyone has Jimmy Rollins & Matt Holliday predicted last year.

AL EAST: Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Orioles - with a caveat for the Jays & Rays; if the Jays staff suffers an injury to Halliday the Rays will probably finish ahead of them.

AL CENTRAL: Indians, Tigers, Twins, White Sox, Royals - I'm not convinced about the Tigers pitching (even in that ballpark), Willis could be a disaster.  Pretty much the same for the White Sox. The surprise team could be the Twins, but a lot of young talent has to fulfill potential immediately though.

ALWEST: Mariners, Angels, Rangers, A's - The Angels don't have the pitching depth they thought they did, and their offense is still sad; the Rangers (as usual) and A's will be awful.

AL WILDCARD: Tigers      AL PENNANT: Red Sox

NL EAST: Mets, Phillies, Braves, Nationals, Marlins - I like the Mets top four starters better than the Philies, and don't like the Phillies bullpen at all.  The Braves won't be as close as some think they will.

NL CENTRAL: Cubs, Brewers, Astros, Reds, Pirates, Cardinals - This could be an ugly division again.  The Astros, Reds & Pirates could finish in any order but probably 15 games behind the Cubs.

NL WEST: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres, Giants - The Dodgers could be scary good on offense, the D'Backs scary good pitching.  The Rockies got lucky last year, kind of like a Cindarella in the NCAA Basketball Tournament, they won't win 85 games this year.

NL WILDCARD: Diamondbacks      NL PENNANT: Mets

...then get back to me on PEDs.  All of these players would be accused of PED abuse if these seasons happened in 2008.

Mickey Mantle's 1956 season compared to the others from '53 to '60, then the one year blip in '61.

Davey Johnson's 1973, Burt Campenaris' 1970, Carlton Fisk's 1985.

Was Tony Gwynn using when he hit 17 HR at age 37 & 16 at 38 when he hadn't hit double digit HRs since age 26...musta been, right?

At age 40 George Brett hit 19 HRs, in the same number of ABs each of the previous two season he totaled 17. After the 19HR season he retires? Obviously hiding something, he used something, right?

Player A has HR totals in the teens early in his career, then 44 HRs at age 27, 40 when he's 29 & 30, then stuck in the teens and early 20s for HR totals throughout his 30s with a one year blip of 28 HRs when he's 37.  An obvious steroid user, must've used them to get a big contract then stopped when he was paid.  You can easily tell just by looking at his stats.  Either that of it's Carl Yastrzemski's career.

Dozens if not hundreds of tests have been done on HGH use & athletes in their prime, none have shown even a little bit of evidece of improvement.  It doesn't help sprinters, power lifters, gymnasts; it certainly doesn't help baseball players.  There has also been no proof of it helping recover from injuries, none.  Other than older people, in their 60s and older (Stallone), there are no benefits to HGH.  There is also no information on the long term affects of its use, hence the ban.

Baseball is a game of physics, hand-eye coordination and decision making.  Big biceps don't matter; if Dave Kingman played his career in the 90s instead of the 70s he would've had Jose Canseco stats (less the SB).  Smaller ballparks, weaker pitching, better bats all lead to better offense a whole lot more than any steroid or hormone ever could/would or will.

Take all the steroids you want, if you don't have a smooth swing, can't put the bat head on the ball, can't lay off the slider away, you're not going to be any good.  Desperate players have tried to gain an advantage to get to a higher level of play, they've all failed, everyone of them, majors & minors, no improvement in performance, none. One year blips have happened forever, superstar & scrub, they continue to happen now, and will 20 years from now.

With it being just the beginning of Spring Training there isn't much to comment on, and I don't "report", so I'm stealing a topic of discussion from a lunchbreak this week for a blog topic.

If I were Commissioner:

- The DH would be in both leagues, but limited to 100 games per year.  That would keep the full-time DHs out of the game (nothing against Harold Baines).  There would also be no 'DH put into the field, pitcher hits' rule, pitchers should never hit (nothing against Micah Owings).

- Each team would play a home & away single admission double header on Saturday(s).  I would strongly suggest teams not increase the ticket prices for those days more than 20%, although this is a free country and ticket prices are supply & demand driven.

- I'm not sure this falls under the "Commissoiner" tag, but I'd eliminate the Wins stat for a pitcher.  It simply doesn't matter anymore.  Back when pitchers threw entire games regardless of the score they could be responsible for a win or loss, but now with pitch counts and one inning bullpen guys wins are truly a team effort.  A teams record when a particular pitcher starts would be a better gauge.

Seems like there was more, so there may be a second part to this blog in a few days.

Yes, I know I left out the whole PED thing; get back to me when either more that a handful of a couple hundred are significant players or when there is a PED that improves either/both decision making (which pitches to swing at) and/or the ability to put a four inch section of a stick on a ball traveling at you 90 mph. Throw in the ability to spot a pitch where you want it as well. Find the list of minor leaguers that have been caught and let me know how many were actual prospects before or after the use (I'll save you some time, none).

Let's see, they don't help players perform on a baseball field; people are HR crazy about them...if they make a 375ft out go 400ft for a HR the they also make a 300ft (pick your distance) flyball go 330ft that makes it easier to catch or position under to keep someone from tagging up and advancing; the same would apply to the pace groundballs, 10% (pick your pct) faster gets some throught the infield for singles it would also quicken the pace of the slow roller making it a double play ball. 

A rule is a rule, and if broken one must pay the consequences. But let's be fair/reasonable/objective about things. 

The Mariners didn't give up a lot in known commodities (other than Jones) but they did give up some quality prospects, more talent prospects then stat driven ones. Jones will be added to Markasis to form a fairly decent, and potentially dynamic, pair of outfielders; Sherrill seems like an odd fit, but he'll probably be traded by July 31st to a contender.

Tillman & Butler are both pitchers who could be in the rotation mid 2010.  You have to look past the W-L records (which don't matter with any pitcher) and ERA to find some potential.  Tillman had a 4.2 K/BB ratio, granted at High-A ball, but its still impressive. Add 9.2 K/9 IP and you see why the Orioles wanted him. Butler went 4.85 K/BB and 7.7 K/9 IP, not too bad for a lanky lefty with a herky-jerky delivery...usually that leads to wildness.  Obviously they both need to perform above Single-A, but it doesn't seem that will be a problem.

Mickolio could be in Baltimore by August; he had a 3.75 K/BB ratio and 10.5 K/9 IP.  He's a big (6'9") hard thrower that has better than average control, and also has a decent changeup.  He's a September call-up, if not an All-Star break call-up.  He probably won't be the next great closer, but every team needs their version of Scott Proctor.

The Orioles also added some size for their rec league basketball team: Mickolio 6'9", Butler 6'7", Tillman 6'5" and Jones has some hops (but only 6'2").

So far MacPhail has given up two and gotten ten, with Roberts left.  And depending on the seasons they have Baez, Bradford, Walker & Sherrill could all go between the All-Star break & the non-waiver trading deadline (hence Mickolio's call-up).